Fantasy Soccer: Analytical sleepers from the 2024 rookie large receiver class | Fantasy Soccer Information, Rankings and Projections

• Troy Franklin boasts essentially the most promising profile exterior the highest three: After the clear high three large receivers on this yr’s class, Oregon’s Franklin is available in not too far behind with some very encouraging metrics.

• Florida State’s Johnny Wilson intrigues: Between his unimaginable measurement and athleticism, Wilson brings some attention-grabbing manufacturing numbers regardless of not really breaking out throughout his faculty profession.

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Estimated Studying Time: 10 minutes

After going over a few of the standout analytical knowledge from the top-five large receivers on this yr’s class, we’ll now shift our focus to potential sleepers who rank exterior of the highest 5 on the PFF huge board and may very well be deserving of extra love heading into the draft.

A number of notes earlier than diving into these receivers:

• These “sleepers” can be gamers who rank within the seventy fifth percentile within the faculty manufacturing mannequin and rank exterior the highest 5 gamers at their place coming into the 2024 NFL Draft.
• General percentile rank relies on a mannequin that features a participant’s yards per route run for his or her profession, from particular alignments and towards single protection, in addition to their greatest single-season marks. Additionally included are different secure metric classes, comparable to yards after catch per reception and separation fee, the latter of which has been adjusted to concentrate on targets deeper downfield.
• This mannequin consists of all large receiver prospects over the previous 5 years (since 2019).
• Strengths are thought-about manufacturing knowledge factors the place a selected large receiver scored the best compared to the prospect pool relationship again to 2019.
• Weaknesses are the areas the place a selected large receiver scored under the fiftieth percentile in that individual manufacturing class in comparison with the prospect pool since 2019.
• Whereas that is removed from an ideal methodology, gamers that this mannequin has recognized previously that match the above standards embrace Puka Nacua (93rd percentile), Christian Watson (86th percentile), Diontae Johnson (86th percentile), Tank Dell (76th percentile) and Brandon Aiyuk (76th percentile).

Troy Franklin, Oregon

Franklin’s sleeper standing is borderline in that he’s trending towards being a late first-round decide/early second-round decide. Nevertheless, he’s additionally ranked exterior the highest 5 at his place on the PFF huge board. Based mostly on his manufacturing profile, he may very well be deserving of a top-five rating.

Franklin posted a few of the most encouraging numbers towards single protection, not simply in comparison with this yr’s class, however amongst all prospects since 2019. His 5.10 yards per route run in that regard ranks within the 94th percentile, and when receivers with not less than 90 targets towards single protection, Franklin ranks fourth — behind solely DeVonta Smith (5.95), Tee Higgins (5.32) and Ja’Marr Chase (5.25).

Franklin’s Profession School Analytical Strengths

Franklin finally ends up so excessive on the faculty manufacturing mannequin — and fourth on this yr’s class — largely as a result of there weren’t many areas the place he confirmed true weaknesses. There was only one class collected the place he ranked under the fiftieth percentile in manufacturing since 2019, and that was his yards after catch per reception (5.5).

Franklin did have a few different classes that had been low in comparison with the remainder of his profile — however not a lot that they’re main issues. His missed tackles pressured per reception (0.18) ranked within the 59th percentile of prospects since 2019, as did his targets per route run (0.24). Once more, these aren’t horrible numbers, particularly when his profile as an entire, as he pushes for a case to be a top-five large receiver on this class.

Franklin’s School Analytical Weaknesses

Javon Baker, UCF

Baker is trending towards being a Day 3 decide, making him a real sleeper on this yr’s class, because the success fee for such prospects begins to get a lot decrease exterior of the primary two rounds. That being stated, Baker has an encouraging manufacturing profile that places him amongst gamers who, on common, had been drafted throughout the first 84 picks of their respective draft class — up from Baker’s present development of being the 99th participant drafted, in keeping with the PFF Mock Draft Simulator.

Baker, very similar to Troy Franklin, thrived towards single protection throughout his faculty profession, posting an elite 93.6 receiving grade (96th percentile) and 5.07 yards per route run (94th percentile). Baker rounds out the highest 5 large receivers in yards per route run versus single protection who confronted not less than 90 targets in that regard since 2019, simply behind Franklin.

Baker’s Profession School Analytical Strengths

Whereas Baker has some encouraging numbers that recommend he’s worthy of a better spot within the draft, there are additionally numbers on the decrease finish. Amongst them are missed tackles pressured per reception (53rd percentile) and targets per route run (59th percentile), however there have been solely two areas the place he fell under the fiftieth percentile threshold.

Baker’s adjusted separation fee (25%) is a priority for a participant with a better common depth of goal (15.1) for the previous two years as a starter, however he did properly to herald contested catches (54.0%) — although that isn’t sometimes a secure metric. Baker ought to nonetheless be thought-about a longshot to achieve the NFL, with optimistic outcomes being related fantasy success to Gabe Davis or Romeo Doubs, although extra probably outcomes nearer to David Bell or Dyami Brown.

Baker’s School Analytical Weaknesses

Jamari Thrash, Louisville

Thrash is one other probably Spherical 3 decide, at greatest, presently entering into that vary in PFF’sMock Draft Simulator. Thrash’s robust manufacturing profile features a constructive exhibiting towards single protection, very similar to Troy Franklin and Javon Baker earlier than him. Thrash additionally shares the very same receiving grade towards single protection because the No. 3-ranked large receiver on the PFF huge board, Rome Odunze, with a barely higher yards per route run.

Thrash spent nearly all of his faculty profession lined up out large, and he supplied robust manufacturing out of that alignment, together with a 78th percentile receiving grade (82.9) and a 71st percentile yards per route run determine (2.52).

Thrash’s Profession School Analytical Strengths

Thrash’s good analytical profile comes from not having too many important weaknesses, very similar to the others on this record. There are nonetheless some pink flags to pay attention to, nonetheless. His greatest single-season receiving grade — which got here in 2022 — did not crack the fiftieth percentile of prospects since 2019. After transferring from Georgia State within the Group of 5 to Louisville within the Energy 5, he was unable to construct on his robust manufacturing and even noticed a slight decline in his total manufacturing towards harder competitors.

This makes Thrash a harder promote, particularly contemplating that 4 years’ value of his manufacturing got here towards Group of 5 competitors. However even with that accounted for, he nonetheless ranked extremely sufficient to be included on this record.

Thrash’s School Analytical Weaknesses

Johnny Wilson, Florida State

• No. 18-ranked large receiver on the PFF huge board
• seventy fifth percentile manufacturing profile amongst faculty large receiver prospects since 2019
• PFF Mock Draft Simulator ADP: 76.8

Wilson is without doubt one of the greater large receivers on this yr’s class, with a formidable wingspan and glorious athletic profile, and he earned excessive marks on this faculty manufacturing mannequin. Wilson wasn’t fairly as productive from a quantity perspective in 2023 as teammate Keon Coleman, however his profession as an entire — which these numbers are principally based mostly on — is far stronger. Wilson even owns the highest explosive play fee amongst large receivers on this yr’s class (48.0%), which locations within the 98th percentile of prospects since 2019, simply forward of Ja’Marr Chase.

Serving to Wilson’s manufacturing profile is his 2022 season with 3.36 yards per route run, which lands him within the 72nd percentile of prospects in profession yards per route run since 2019. After that robust season, and even whereas lacking time with damage in 2023, Wilson nonetheless produced some constructive outcomes for his faculty profession and stands out as a big-play menace who has commanded targets at a robust fee.

Wilson’s Profession School Analytical Strengths

Wilson may very well be considered as a participant who didn’t really get away throughout his faculty profession, having by no means exceeded 900 receiving yards or 5 touchdowns in a season. His profession receiving grade displays that, as properly, rating slightly below the fiftieth percentile.

Wilson additionally had a decrease adjusted separation fee (39%), which isn’t a big concern, neither is it essentially out of the extraordinary for a receiver of his measurement. He lands in a bucket with Tee Higgins, A.J. Brown, Michael Pittman and Puka Nacua — all of whom posted related or barely worse on this class and had been drafted exterior of the primary spherical.

Wilson’s School Analytical Weaknesses

Jacob Cowing, Arizona

Cowing is the lone participant on this record presently going exterior of the highest 100 picks in PFF’s Mock Draft Simulator, making him the deepest sleeper of the group. He has additionally been probably the most productive large receivers on this yr’s class, with greater than 4,500 receiving yards and 33 touchdowns over 5 seasons. Cowing did spend the primary three years of his faculty profession within the Group of 5 with UTEP, so it isn’t too stunning that his manufacturing declined a bit after transferring to Arizona within the Energy 5.

The positives for Cowing within the Energy 5 are that he noticed not less than 120 targets and had 85 receptions in each seasons whereas combining for 20 touchdowns — a career-high 13 of which got here in 2023. Cowing’s profession 90.7 receiving grade shouldn’t be neglected, as his worst season-long mark was 71.2 as a freshman in 2019.

Cowing’s Profession School Analytical Strengths

Cowing’s common depth of goal dropped off considerably after he transferred from UTEP (15.7) to Arizona (7.6), additionally reducing down his explosive play fee. Not serving to issues for him was that in 2023, when he had his lowest common depth of goal (6.7), he posted simply eight complete pressured missed tackles as a receiver, which led to a career-low 1.92 yards per route run and simply 5.8 yards after the catch per reception.

Cowing has carried out properly, nonetheless, in numerous offenses throughout a number of conferences, which does make him intriguing when the remainder of his manufacturing profile. He compares extra as a late Day 2 decide than the Day 3 prospect that he presently is.

Cowing’s School Analytical Weaknesses